AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
When you think of droughts, the first place that comes to mind probably isn't New England, but a dry summer has led to low water levels in large parts of Massachusetts. Most of the state is under significant drought conditions, and that means water restrictions and an increased risk of brush fires. To talk about this and when it may end, we turn to Ken Mahan. He's the lead meteorologist at The Boston Globe. Welcome to the program.
KEN MAHAN: Thanks for having me, Ayesha.
RASCOE: How bad are these drought conditions throughout the state right now?
MAHAN: So the entire state as a whole is running what we call abnormally dry, which means that we've seen a prolonged period of precipitation reaching substantially below average. The Capes specifically are in a level of severe and moderate drought, and along Route 2 in northern Massachusetts is in a moderate drought as well, all stemming from the beginning of summer after a rather wet spring. But yes, this is becoming more common, and unfortunately, we've seen back to back and now back summers where we've seen less than average precipitation across the state.
RASCOE: Well, can I ask you - you said that it's becoming more common. We always have to ask, like, is this climate change?
MAHAN: Yeah, unfortunately, a big piece of it is climate change. When you do have a warming atmosphere and warming sea surface temperatures, then that is going to naturally change the way the atmosphere behaves. You think of the jet stream. The jet stream is the highway in which weather patterns traverse across the country. And over the last few summers, we've seen that jet stream become a little bit more to the north or diving down to the south of New England, which simply redirects storms away.
RASCOE: So what you're saying, just in layman's terms, is that the atmosphere conditions are changing, and so the jet streams are not bringing the storms and the water precipitation that they usually would to Massachusetts. They're sending them elsewhere.
MAHAN: That's absolutely correct. And also, with more heat in the atmosphere, it could hold more water vapor. And unfortunately, during the summer when we need precipitation the most, the storms that do come through are much weaker.
RASCOE: So can you give us a sense of how unusual it is for it to be this dry right now?
MAHAN: Well, you think of Massachusetts - I was looking at the data. This summer alone, Massachusetts saw anywhere between 2 to 7 inches of rain deficit from June 1. That has brought down 70% of stream flows and groundwater storages statewide, so that is a pretty significant drop. Northern New England as a whole - they saw the driest summer on record dating back nearly 130 years, with rainfall deficits over the summer reaching a foot, which is...
RASCOE: Oh.
MAHAN: ...Pretty astonishing.
RASCOE: When can the state expect some relief?
MAHAN: Looking at the long-term pattern - and I was just looking at the second half of fall and the beginning of winter - I do think that we will start to see some increased precipitation as far as events, not so much intensity. As I see the jet stream setup sort of continue, I think we're going to continue to see weaker storms heading into the new year. But hopefully, we do end up getting a little bit more precipitation in the coming months.
RASCOE: Do you expect a warmer winter with less snow?
MAHAN: Unfortunately, I do. I just was diving into sort of the fleeting fall snow events across Boston and the state of Massachusetts, but we hardly see any snow during the fall season and going into winter. Yeah, I do unfortunately see a warmer than average winter once again and then sort of a backloaded winter where snow doesn't really ramp up towards until the end of January and then tapers off pretty quickly at the beginning of March. It does look like we're in for another less than average snowfall season.
RASCOE: That's Ken Mahan, lead meteorologist at The Boston Globe. Thank you so much for joining us.
MAHAN: Thanks for having me, yeah, Aisha. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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